REASON FOR PICK: Riddle me this. Has any school ever followed a 70-point outburst by losing its next 14 games? I don't know the actual answer to that question but let me introduce you to the New Mexico Lobos. New Mexico beat San Diego State 70-7 in Las Cruces back on 10/18/08 but hasn't won since. The Lobos followed that 63-point win by losing their final four games of the 2008 season and are currently one of three, 0-10 schools in 2009. The team's 14-game losing streak (4-10 ATS) is the second-longest active losing streak next to Western Kentucky, which has lost 18 in a row. The Lobos are off an excellent effort this past Saturday, losing 24-19 at home to BYU, which is currently ranked 19th in the latest AP poll. New Mexico QB Porterie played one of his better games of 2009, completing 28-of-44 for 272 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. This is New Mexico's home finale and the Lobos finish the season with a visit to Fort Worth on November 28. Simply put, fat chance the Lobos will beat the Horned Frogs, who will likely be playing with a BCS bowl berth on the line. That leaves this game vs Colorado State as New Mexico's "last chance!" The Lobos couldn't ask for a better opponent. The Rams opened the 2009 season by winning their first three games, the last of which came over Nevada, 35-20. That result is hard to fathom at this point, as the Wolf Pack have won all seven of their games since that loss (averaging 50.0 PPG), while CSU has dropped seven straight, going 1-6 ATS. The Rams had last week off but I'm willing to back embattled New Mexico head coach Mike Locksley to grab a much-needed first win. Take New Mexico.

REASON FOR PICK: UL-Monroe (6-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has problems on defense under a new defensive coordinator, who brought in a 3-3-5 look, but they allow 30 ppg. They beat Florida International, but allowed 35 points and 394 yards (314 passing), and allowed 383 yards (195 rushing) in Saturday’s 21-18 win over a terrible Western Kentucky team. Rickey Bustle’s (5-5) UL Lafayette is a decent squad that had to play LSU and Nebraska – both on the road! But they also impressed in a 17-15 win at Kansas State. All five starters back on the offensive line, so it is a run-oriented attack with new soph QB Chris Masson (8 TDs, 8 picks). They are home after a three game conference road trip. They had a tough 20-17 OT loss at Florida International, despite 254 passing yards from Masson, a 21-18 win at Arkansas State, rolling up 376 yards, and Saturday’s 34-17 loss at Middle Tennessee State. An excellent spot for the home dog. Play UL-Lafayette.

REASON FOR PICK: Over the last 7 games, this is the sixth road game for Portland, a tough stretch for any team. They are 0-2 ATS the last two games. The Warriors are a bad road team, but 2-2 at home with a run-and-gun offense. They are also undervalued in the eyes of oddsmakers and the public, at 5-1 ATS the last six games. And that included covers against the mighty Cavaliers and Celtics. Against the Celtics, Corey Maggette led Golden State with 23 points, and Monta Ellis had 18. They have more than enough offense, plus home court, to hang within this number. Play the Warriors.