January 5, 2009
Jimmy's NFL Playoffs Trends
By Jimmy Sirody
Don Best Senior Writer
The road to Tampa Bay for Super Bowl XLIII continues this weekend with the conference semifinals.
Championship caliber teams can't get too giddy about surviving the wild-card round with four rested teams waiting in the wings.
Last week all four home teams were underdogs at some point. This week things have returned to normal with all four hosts favored. Home favorites have not fared well, coming up short in 13 of 16 over the last four seasons in the conference semis.
Trends and angles for this weekend's action appear below.
RAVENS at TITANS
Tennessee rallied for 10 points in the fourth quarter on Oct. 5 at Baltimore to pull out a 13-10 victory as one-point favorites. Both teams have been solid investments this year, with the Ravens cashing 13 of 17 and the Titans getting the green in 12 of 15. Tennessee 'covered' 10 of 13 as favorites and is 16-3 as home favorites of three points or less of late. However, Baltimore has cashed in six of its last eight road meetings with the Titans and the dog is 13-4 in the last 17 series encounters. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS off a road win and 9-2 ATS after cashing four or five of their last six. Five of the past six series skirmishes have ended on the low side. Baltimore has zipped 'over' in 13 of 17 as dogs and in seven of nine on the road. The Ravens have ended on the low side in eight of nine after allowing nine points or less in their last game. Tennessee has eclipsed the number in six of its last eight at home.
CARDS at PANTHERS
Look out Arizona; it's the Eastern Time zone. The Cardinals were 0-5 when they played on the East Coast this season, and if that's not bad enough, Carolina was 8-0 at home, including a Week 8 victory over Arizona, 27-23. The Cardinals have cashed nine of their last 13 as road dogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points, but came up short in six of their last seven as road pups overall. Home favorites of seven to 9 1/2-points are 19-12 in the conference semifinal round. The Panthers have 'covered' six of their lasts seven in the playoffs and at a 9-2-1 clip as favorites. There's a strong pro playoff system that points toward playing against any team that won, but allowed 21 or more points in their last postseason test. These teams are 6-20-1 ATS in the next round since 1995. The Cards won their wild-card game, 30-24. Arizona has stormed 'over' in 12 of 17 games and topped the 'total' in 14 of its last 18 as road pups. The Cards have also strayed 'over' in 15 of 18 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. Carolina has ended on the high side in six of its last seven appearances. However, the Panthers have knuckled 'under' in 11 of 15 at home.
EAGLES at GIANTS
Philadelphia is probably not the team the New York Giants wanted to see to start their playoff run. After the Giants won the early-season game as three-point road dogs, 36-31, the Eagles beat them on Dec. 7 in the Meadowlands, 20-14, which started New York's late-season slide. The Giants have cashed eight of their last nine avenging a home loss and they have 'covered' 10 of 11 versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ points per game. Philadelphia has cashed 12 of its last 15 as dogs and 10 of 12 as short-enders on the road. The Eagles have also 'covered' four straight as playoff pups. The defending champs are 8-2 as favorites of between 3 1/2 and 9 1/2 points this year. The road team is 6-1 in the past seven showdowns between these NFC East rivals and the dog has 'covered' eight straight. The 'under' is 10-2 in the last dozen duels at Giants Stadium. Philadelphia has bounced 'over' in 12 of 15 as underdogs. Conversely, New York has ducked 'under' in 14 of 18 avenging an upset loss as home favorites.
CHARGERS at STEELERS
Is there anyone who could have envisioned a playoff rematch after Pittsburgh beat San Diego, 11-10, on Nov. 16? But the Chargers have been transformed since then, and they are the hottest team left in the playoffs. San Diego is 10-1-1 as dogs of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. The Chargers have 'covered' eight straight after gaining 400 or more total yards over their last three games. The Steelers boast an equally impressive resume. They have cashed five straight in the playoffs and won and 'covered' eight of 11 against San Diego. Pittsburgh is 22-8 as home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points. The Chargers have flown 'over' in 14 of 18 when the number was between 35 1/2 and 42, though they have gone 'under' in seven of their last eight January outings. The Steelers have been on the high side in seven of their last eight playoff games at Heinz Field and in 10 of 12 in the postseason overall.
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