NFL Trends

By Jimmy Sirody
Don Best Senior Writer

If New Orleans (5-0 SU&ATS) manages to earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, it may very well be headed to the Super Bowl. All things being equal, the Saints will be difficult to beat in the Superdome.

After routing an unbeaten New York Giants team with a stellar road record last Sunday, New Orleans left little doubt that it is currently the best team in the NFL. The G-Men were ranked first in the league in six defensive categories before the Saints put 48 points on the board; the most New York had coughed up in 10 years.

New Orleans now must avoid looking ahead to a crucial NFC-South showdown with Atlanta in two weeks when it travels to face upset-minded Miami (2-3 SU&ATS).

The Saints have been a betting bonanza recently, grabbing the cheese at an 11-0-1 clip since Week 9 of 2008. They have 'covered' 11 of their last dozen as favorites, 17 of 23 versus AFC-East foes and six straight non-conference tests.

The Dolphins, coming off their bye week, have won back-to-back games at Land Shark Stadium. They have 'covered' 12 of 14 as non-division dogs of six points or more. However, Miami is 8-22 ATS at home versus teams outside its division and is 3-11 ATS at home after a SU and ATS victory.

Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 7 NFL menu appear below.

CHARGERS ( ) at CHIEFS (1-5, 2-4)

The home team has cashed at an 8-4-1 clip in the last 13 meetings in this division rivalry. The SU winner is 23-5-2 ATS. Kansas City is 9-1 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium with revenge off a SU win. The Chiefs are also 19-7-1 ATS at home off a SU and ATS win and 40-18-2 as home short-enders. San Diego has 'covered' eight of nine after facing Denver and five of six before taking on Oakland.

COLTS (5-0, 4-1) at RAMS (0-6, 2-4)

Indianapolis returns off its bye week looking for its fourth straight lopsided win. The Colts have 'covered' 16 of 19 off back-to-back double-digit wins and they are 29-16-2 ATS after scoring 28 points or more. Unbeaten Indy is 18-10 as non-conference chalk as well. St. Louis has dropped 28 of 36 ATS versus good defensive teams giving up 17 or less points per game. The Colts have stampeded 'over' at a 26-17-2 clip on the road versus non-division foes and the Rams have followed suit in eight of 10 as non-division home pups.

BEARS (3-2 SU&ATS) at BENGALS (4-2, 3-3)

Cincinnati had won four straight until coming up short at home last week to Houston, 28-17. The Bengals are 7-15-2 as favorites after a SU loss and 0-7 as chalk off a double-digit SU setback. Chicago tries to bounce back after a Sunday night loss at Atlanta. The Bears had won and cashed in their three previous trips to the post. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road rumbles. Chicago has ended on the down side in 32 of 49 as non-conference dogs and at a 25-9-1 clip as non-division road short-enders. Cincinnati has ducked below the number in 20 of 29 at Paul Brown Stadium after losing by seven points or more.

PACKERS (3-2 SU&ATS) at BROWNS (0-6, 3-3)

Green Bay can't afford to look ahead to next week's division slugfest against Minnesota. Cleveland has 'covered' eight of its last 11 after playing Pittsburgh and six straight in October. The Packers are 17-9 ATS on the road since 2006. They have flipped 'over' in 18 of 22 off a spread win and at a 17-7-1 rate on the highway versus non-division opposition. Conversely, the Browns have strayed 'under' in 16 of 25 as non-conference dogs.

VIKINGS (6-0, 4-2) at STEELERS (4-2, 1-5)

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will smile thinking about a Minnesota defense that gave up 368 passing yards last week to Baltimore's Joe Flacco. The Vikings are just 12-20-1 ATS as non-division road dogs. The defending champs are 28-16-2 ATS off a double-digit division win. The Steelers have cashed eight of nine in the second of back-to-back home games versus a non-division foe and they are 8-3 ATS as non-conference favorites of more than three points. Minnesota has zipped 'over' at a 15-8-1 pace on the road after allowing 28 points or more.

PATS (5-1, 3-3) versus BUCS (0-6, 1-5) @ London

New England served notice last week that is back on track offensively after gaining a club-record 619 yards, including 380 on Tom Brady's passes en route to the most lopsided win since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970. The Patriots are 24-12-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less, but just 1-8 as double-digit favorites. Tampa Bay has dropped six of seven spread decisions as underdogs of more than seven points.

49ERS (3-2, 4-1) at TEXANS (3-3 SU&ATS)

Houston is not going to catch Indianapolis but it could gain some ground against San Francisco and Buffalo before it plays the Colts Nov. 8. The 49ers are 5-12 ATS on the road when facing an opponent that won SU as a dog and they are 1-4 ATS with rest. The Texans have alternated wins and losses, both SU and ATS this season. If that trend holds they are headed for the dumpster. Houston has zoomed 'over' at a 15-9-1 rate off a SU and ATS win and ended on the high side at a 6-2-1 pace versus NFC opponents. San Francisco has toppled 'under' in seven of 10 as short-enders of 3 ½-points or less and in 13 of 17 on the road after allowing 28 points or more.

JETS (3-3 SU&ATS) at RAIDERS (2-4, 3-3)

The New York Jets have fallen into second place in the AFC-East for the first time in a season that is rapidly falling apart but far from over. Oakland, the laughing stock of the league after three straight losses by a combined score of 96-16, is coming off a stunning upset over Philadelphia. The Raiders are 7-15-1 ATS at home after a SU and ATS win. New York is 5-18 SU and 7-17 ATS on the road versus a non-division foe. The Jets are 0-7 as non-division road favorites of more than three points. Oakland upset New York last year as three-point home dogs, 16-13. The Jets are 1-6 as road favorites of less than nine points with revenge. The Raiders have come away with the cash in four of their last five against AFC-East tenants.

BILLS (2-4, 3-3) at PANTHERS (2-3, 1-4)

Buffalo has thrived on the road against losing teams, grabbing the check in 12 of 14 ATS. However, the Bills are 4-10 ATS after winning a division game on the road. Carolina snapped a four-game spread skid with its win last week at Tampa Bay. Buffalo has jumped the number at a 22-12-1 clip after winning SU as dogs. The Panthers have popped 'over' at a 10-4-1 rate as favorites of three-points or less.

FALCONS (4-1 SU&ATS) at COWBOYS (3-2, 2-3)

Atlanta has struggled with prosperity recently, dropping six straight spread decisions after two or more consecutive victories. Dallas takes aim at winning two in a row for the first time. The Cowboys have 'covered' five in a row following their bye week. They are 1-9 ATS at home versus an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Falcons have slipped below the limit in 22 of 31 road tests outside their division.

CARDINALS (3-2, 3-2) at GIANTS (5-1, 4-1-1)

Arizona arrives at the Meadowlands after its best defensive showing in 10 years. The defending NFC champs are 10-25-1 ATS on the road versus non-division competition and just 5-15 ATS off a double-digit division win. The New York Giants have cashed nine of their last 10 against NFC-West rivals, while the Cardinals are 1-7 ATS on the road against NFC-East occupants. Arizona has zoomed 'over' in 19 of 25 tries as road dogs and at a 22-10-1 clip on turf. The Giants have ended on the high side at an 8-1-1 pace as non-division home favorites.

EAGLES (3-2, 3-2) at SKINS (2-4, 1-4-1)

Washington suffered its third loss to a previously winless team last week. The Redskins offense generated 265 yards and seven first downs against a Kansas City defense that had been yielding 402.8 yards a game. The dog has 'covered' in eight of the last nine meetings between these NFC-East foes. Washington has managed to cash 13 of 17 as home dogs of 6 1/2 or more, though it is 9-17-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back home outings. Philadelphia is 22-11 ATS on the division road.

The Eagles have 'covered' six in a row after scoring less than 10 points and 11 of 15 after losing SU as favorites. They are 13-2 ATS away from home with division revenge as well. The 'under' is 15-5 in the last 20 meetings at FedEx Field. The Redskins have knuckled 'under' in 17 of their last 21 games overall and in 10 of 11 at home. Philadelphia has slipped below the limit in nine of 11 as division favorites on the road.

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