January 2, 2009
Colts (12-4, 7-7-2) at Chargers (8-8, 7-9)
By Jimmy Sirody
Don Best Senior Writer
The San Diego Chargers will take on the Indianapolis Colts for the fourth time in the last two seasons Saturday night at Qualcomm Stadium with a spot in the Divisional Round of the playoffs up for grabs.
The Chargers fell to the Colts in the regular season this year at home, 23-20. But last season they upset host Indianapolis in a divisional playoff game, 28-24.
San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers will face a much more formidable defensive front Saturday than he did in last year's playoff win. The Colts played without Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Raheem Brock in that one, and the defense failed to record a sack. Now, all three players are healthy for the postseason rematch.
For the first time in the Chargers-Colts rivalry, it's difficult to concede that Indy has much of an edge at quarterback. Rivers outperformed Peyton Manning in yards (4,009-4.002), touchdowns (24-27) and passer rating (105.5-95.0). Over the last six games, which started against the Colts, Rivers has thrown for 13 touchdowns and only one interception.
A seismic shift has taken place in San Diego. The Chargers will now go as far as Rivers, not LaDanian Tomlinson, will take them. Since the teams met in last year's playoffs, San Diego has completed the transition from a run-first attack to a pass-first scheme.
However, the Colts are probably deepest in the defensive backfield, and only gave up six touchdown passes this season, an NFL record.
You can't discount the Chargers' historic run. No other team has recovered from a 4-8 start to earn a playoff berth. But here's a reality check: San Diego was 5-1 against its weak AFC West brethren, 3-7 outside its division. The Chargers were 0-5 against teams that reached the playoffs, losing by a combined 19 points.
Indianapolis won eight games by seven points or fewer, and three of those came on the road against division champs Minnesota, Pittsburgh and San Diego. Another came against New England (11-5).
The Colts current winning streak is all about Manning finding his "A" game just in time.
The second reason is that after a very rough start, the Indianapolis defense has improved drastically, particularly in the area of keeping the opposition off the scoreboard.
Manning has been extremely hot - almost impossibly so - since the Chargers last saw him. He has completed 90 of 110 passes with eight touchdowns and no interceptions over the past four games.
But the San Diego defense has improved since that meeting as well. Over the past four games, the Chargers are allowing just 213 passing yards a game, have yielded four total touchdowns and intercepted a league-high eight passes.
San Diego is going to have to supply some heat on Manning to have any hope of disrupting the Colts' passing game. While the Chargers have just five (of their total 28) sacks in the last four games, they have made quarterbacks move - and think.
San Diego finished the regular season 31st in defending the pass. They've had some success creating turnovers against Manning in the past, including nine interceptions in three meetings the past two seasons.
The Colts come in with the league's second-worst rushing offense. The Chargers know they must focus on keeping Indianapolis one-dimensional if they're ever going to get Manning off the field. The strategy has worked in the previous three meetings, with Joseph Addai averaging just 3.3 yards per carry in those games.
San Diego won't be at full strength with Tomlinson slowed by a strained groin. That means the Chargers will have to lean more on Darren Sproles and rookie fullback Jacob Hester. They need to have positive yards on early downs or Rivers will be forced into third-and longs. If that's the case Freeney and Mathis could get after Rivers with vengeance.
Most offshore books opened San Diego as one-point favorites with the 'total' set at 51.
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